HOUSE RACE ODDS

With the November election literally just days away, one of the state House races in Oakland County drawing special attention is the rematch between Democrat Shadia Martini from Bloomfield Township and incumbent Republican state Rep. Donni Steele who won the 2022 contest by 1,004 votes for the 54th House District that includes Bloomfield Township and Bloomfield Hills, along with Orion and Oakland townships and the city of Auburn Hills. While local Democrat club members talk about how the Bloomfield’s have gone Blue, the numbers say otherwise. Martini in 2020 took those two communities by only 64 votes, and that was in an election cycle with three state ballot issues that would draw more from the liberal ranks (think abortion, voting rights, lawmaker financial transparency/term limits), plus local tax questions in three of the communities, not to mention a recreational cannabis question in Auburn Hills. The reality on the ground is that two-thirds of the 54th’s population lives in the northern part of the district where one GOP operative noted, “Donni is VERY strong up here, as is Trump.” Martini in the final weeks this time around seems to be relying on TV ads critiquing Steele by cherry-picking some of the 740 votes she has cast in office and for being in the anti-abortion camp, although most consider that a settled issue in Michigan. Balance that against what one Republican noted is “signs all up and down M-24 (Lapeer Road)” in the northern environs for Steele, a recognized hometown figure after serving on the Orion Township board and as township treasurer since 2012. On the campaign finance front, at the end of August, Martini had nearly $223,000 on hand, most from individuals from other states, bolstered by reported funding from a Democrat legislative election committee. Steele had just over $96,000 in the bank, the majority of it from Oakland GOP loyalists whose names have a familiar ring, and some from Republican party royalty on the west side of the state, like members of the VanAndel (Amway) family, and Grand Rapids area developer Dan Hibma who gave birth ($300,000) to the far-right TGIF Victory Fund, along with the likes of Terry Lynn Land ($50,000), former Michigan SOS. This fund is the main underwriter of the political mess in Ottawa County. This is the race to watch.